A prediction on the unemployment rate in the future

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A prediction on the unemployment rate in the future

From toChina abolished the civil service examination system and established a modern schooling system based on Western models. In China adopted the American model, and this dominated the Chinese higher education system until In all of the higher education institutions were brought under the jurisdiction of the communist government, and the Soviet model was adopted to restructure China's higher education system in order to serve the manpower needs for building a socialist China.

In China made its first attempt to expand the higher education sector by establishing more than 23, after-hours part work, part study colleges, in order to make an ambitious economic growth plan possible - the so-called Great Leap Forward for Socialist Construction.

Afterwith the end of the Cultural Revolution of —76, A prediction on the unemployment rate in the future restored its higher education system and started educational reforms along with the move to a market-oriented socialist economy. From tohigher education developed on the basis of numbers being controlled and limited, and quality being improved.

The unduly low proportion of students in the tertiary sector brought out the negative impact on Chinese economic growth. Inthe Declaration of the World Conference on Higher Education organized by UNESCO [3] in Paris made the Chinese government aware that a rapid increase in the enrollment figures in higher education would be a way to respond to the needs of opening up and meeting the requirements of economic and social development.

In the number is 4, with the rate of The figure in indicated almost four times as many enrollments as in This caused an increase in tuition fees and affected the quality of higher education, which in turn influenced the employment of graduates. The Asian Financial Crisis of —99 influenced the economy by slowing growth and as a consequence experts submitted proposals to state organs to stimulate economic recovery.

This involved increasing student numbers and intensifying the modification of education as a way of stimulating internal consumption. However, Cheng, a professor of political science states the authentic unemployment is actually 2.

The lack of diversity in curricula at different levels and in different divisions of higher education determined that graduates lacked the specialty and the flexibility to respond to market demand.

Moreover, before the expansion, a national job market had not yet been established. With a focus on immediate economic growth, the policy makers appear to have made the expansion decision without a big picture of the future structure of China's market-oriented economy, and without knowing in which economic sectors manpower needs would increase.

Regional disparities[ edit ] China has had a long history of regional disparities, and disparities between urban and rural areas. Disparities in economic development are paralleled by disparities in higher education: Such disparities in education are reflected in both quality and quantity.

Measures taken by the government to solve the problem[ edit ] The Chinese government has taken some measures to try to solve the crisis and it hopes injecting huge investments into the economy will create jobs and relieve much of the pressure.

But some experts predict that building infrastructure will only provide manual jobs for ordinary workers and will not benefit college graduates. Another measure is to boost postgraduate enrollments.

Given the decline in jobs, many graduates will choose to study further and this year almost 1. Yet expanding postgraduate enrollments cannot solve the problem of graduate unemployment as it can only offer some relief or postpone the current employment pressure.

Indeed, in recent years, employment of master's degree graduates has become problematic. Diverting graduates to rural areas is a third measure. But a vast gap exists between urban and rural areas in terms of developmental level, opportunities, and living conditions.

Thus, most graduates prefer to work in cities. To encourage them to go to the countryside, the government has come up with policies such as preferential treatment when graduates after two years service apply to become government officials, or extra points are added to their scores in examinations for graduate study.

But these policies are not attractive given the low salaries graduates earn in country areas. The Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China has recently been calling for the whole society, including overseas Chinese, to contribute ideas to improve education overall.

Promoting creative and vocational education has been raised as a way of providing new graduates with creative education and job skills to meet the needs of the market and to face the challenges of a changing world in the decades to come.

Perhaps this approach constitutes a more fundamental strategy that will eventually solve the graduate employment problem, although the impact is likely to take many years to become apparent.

The graduate unemployment crisis in China represents a wasteful investment of scarce resources. Large sums of money have consequently been invested in educating unemployed graduates which could otherwise have been invested in job-creating productive programmes.

With a flood of new graduates, individuals are having a tough time finding jobs in an increasingly competitive labor market. Farlie and Kletzer estimated that being unemployed while young results in lower future earnings by a magnitude of 8.

Meanwhile, graduates have some negative expectations under the pressure of seeking jobs. Obviously, these of problems will bring more risks for employers as well. Another widespread criticism is that, since the acceleration of enrollment starting frommany schools, which were originally vocational ones, have been turned into universities.

This has resulted in the number of university increasing greatly, which also means an increase in graduates with university degrees. But the truth is that the quality of these students' education is often even lower than vocational school graduates. The reason is that vocational school graduates have technical abilities which university graduates often lack.Just about this time three years ago I published a bit of satire titled How to be a Stock Market Guru and get on heartoftexashop.com it I mocked the idea that anyone can predict the short-term market and laughed at those who claim they can.

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A prediction on the unemployment rate in the future

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